by Céline Grislain-Letrémy & Bertrand Villeneuve
The industrialists are liable for any damage they cause to neighboring households. Consequently, households do not have to pay for the risk they create by locating in exposed areas. To contain their liabilities, the firm can purchase or rent land, establishing an exclusion zone, also called a red zone. This paper studies the negotiations of red zones in urban areas exposed to industrial disasters. We compare typical scenarios regarding the distribution of bargaining power between the firm and the city. Using a microeconomic model, we explain how red zones are revised as technology, climate, or demography change, and we show how and why responses are neatly distinct across scenarios. Further, we give and explain the conditions for industrial sanctuaries (as the population grows) and city cores (as the risk grows).